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☆ Barclays says it expects Fed to cut rates just once in 2024
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-17 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBarclays analyst: I'd be shocked if the Fed doesn't call for one cut in 2024 instead of 3Ajay Rajadhyaksha, global chairman of research at Barclays, says "inflation data has jumped up and smacked you in the face in the last three months in the U.S."

Persons: I'd, Ajay Rajadhyaksha Organizations: Barclays Locations: U.S

REUTERS/Andrew Kelly Acquire Licensing RightsSummary poll dataBENGALURU, Nov 22 (Reuters) - Most key global stock indexes are forecast to rise modestly over the coming year, closing 2024 below record highs, while a slim majority of stock market experts polled by Reuters expected their markets to touch new peaks within the next six months. However, only a handful of the 15 top stock indexes were predicted to trade at record peaks by end-2024, based on a wider Nov. 9-22 poll of more than 120 stock market experts. LOWER BOND YIELDSFor now, markets are pricing in a series of 2024 rate cuts, which is sending bond yields lower and stock prices higher. "Falling bond yields are being interpreted by equity markets as a positive in the near-term," said Marko Kolanovic, chief global markets strategist at J.P. Morgan. Canada's main stock index was expected to rise less than previously thought over the coming year as a slowdown in the global economy weighs on the outlook for corporate earnings.

Persons: Andrew Kelly, Ajay Rajadhyaksha, Marko Kolanovic, Morgan, Hari Kishan, Indradip Ghosh, Ross Finley, Alex Richardson Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Reuters, Traders, U.S . Federal, Barclays, Nikkei, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, BENGALURU, Monday's, Bengaluru, Buenos Aires, London, Mexico City, Milan, New York, San Francisco, Sao Paulo, Tokyo, Toronto

☆ Stocks to outperform fixed income in 2024, says Barclays
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

REUTERS/Caitlin Ochs/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNov 16 (Reuters) - Global equities are set to outperform core fixed-income assets next year, as threats of a global economic slowdown have declined, Barclays strategists said in a note on Thursday. We think stocks will benefit from a fairly benign bottom to this business cycle and look through near-term earnings disappointments," said Ajay Rajadhyaksha, global chairman of research at Barclays. "We now turn overweight (on) global equities over core fixed income." Barclays expects mid-to-high single-digit equity returns in both the U.S. and Europe next year, even as bond yields stay elevated. JP Morgan had recommended commodities over stocks and bonds.

Persons: Caitlin Ochs, Ajay Rajadhyaksha, Goldman Sachs, J.P.Morgan, JP Morgan, Roshan Abraham, Susan Mathew, Janane Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Barclays, Treasury, U.S, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Europe, Bengaluru

Re-enter risk premia on what should be 'risk free' bonds. The renewed corporate profits upswing riffs off this relatively robust nominal growth picture too - as do still benign corporate debt premia. However, keeping a lid on 5% nominal GDP may well be what's irking bonds as much as anything. While turning 10-year averages takes some time, nominal GDP growth according to a real time model from the Atlanta Fed is closer to 8% right now. CBO deficit projections to 2030US nominal GDP growth running at 8%?

Persons: York Fed's, Ajay Rajadhyaksha, today's, Treasuries, Fitch, Andrew Heavens Organizations: Treasury, Federal, Fed, The, Barclays, Societe Generale's, Atlanta Fed, Moody's, U.S . AAA, Reuters, Thomson Locations: U.S, Washington, York, 35bp, 150bp, Treasuries, China, Europe

☆ Barclays says rates will keep going higher until there is a deeper stock sell-off
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-05 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The steep decline in the bond market — and the accompanying move up in interest rates — will only stop if the sell-off in stocks accelerates, according to Barclays. "Despite the breathtaking sell-off in longer rates, we do not see a clear catalyst to stem the bleeding. Absent that, there is no sustained bond stabilization and, given how risk assets are finally responding to bonds, no stabilization in risk assets, either. Traders often look to the Federal Reserve in times of bond market stress, as the central bank has in the past stepped in to calm the Treasury market. "The only way the Fed could help longer yields is by hiking so aggressively that markets are convinced a recession is imminent and rush to buy longer rates.

Persons: Ajay Rajadhyaksha, Rajadhyaksha, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Barclays, Treasury, Traders, Federal Reserve Locations: U.S

☆ Carnage in the bond market again with benchmark ETF down 10% on year to lowest since 2011
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-26 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Treasury yields are spiking to levels not seen in over 15 years, causing sell-offs in many of the market's biggest bond funds. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) closed at $89.18 on Monday, which was its lowest close since Feb. 10, 2011, according to FactSet. The Fed's target interest rate is already above 5%, as are short-term Treasury yields. But the long-term decline in bond yields began roughly two decades before that. That trend may finally have reached its turning point, Jim Grant, founder of Grant's Interest Rate Observer, said Tuesday on CNBC's " Squawk Box ."

Persons: Bruno Braizinha, Braizinha, Goldman Sachs, Cecilia Mariotti, Mariotti, Ajay Rajadhyaksha, Jonathan Krinsky, Jim Grant, Grant, BTIG's Krinsky Organizations: Treasury Bond ETF, iShares, Aggregate Bond, Treasury, Bank of America, Barclays, Federal

☆ Very weak growth in China, but no systemic financial crisis: Barclays
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-08 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailVery weak growth in China, but no systemic financial crisis: BarclaysAjay Rajadhyaksha of Barclays explains why the trouble in China's real estate market will not cause a systemic financial crisis.

Persons: Barclays Ajay Rajadhyaksha Organizations: Barclays Locations: China

☆ Office vacancy issue will 'play out over a long period of time', says Barclays' Ajay Rajadhyaksha
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-28 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailOffice vacancy issue will 'play out over a long period of time', says Barclays' Ajay RajadhyakshaAjay Rajadhyaksha, Barclays' global chairman of research, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss the slowdown in commercial real estate and the stock market's reaction to the slowdown.

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Markets are pricing in the best of both worlds
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-31 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. We look at the CBOE Volatility Index. Derived from the price of S&P 500 options, the volatility index measures the market's expectations of how the S&P will move over the next 30 days. Subscribe here to get this report sent directly to your inbox each morning before markets open.

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Investors are pricing in the best of both worlds
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-31 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. We look at the CBOE Volatility Index. Derived from the price of S&P 500 options, the volatility index measures the market's expectations of how the S&P will move over the next 30 days. — CNBC's Dan Mangan contributed to this reportSubscribe here to get this report sent directly to your inbox each morning before markets open.

☆ US stocks jump as traders put bank crisis behind them and brace for more inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-30 | by ( Morgan Chittum | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

US stocks marched higher on hopes that global banking turmoil has finally settled. Investors are looking toward personal consumption expenditures data on Friday for a gauge on inflation. Sign up for our newsletter to get the inside scoop on what traders are talking about — delivered daily to your inbox. Initial filings for unemployment insurance ticked higher last week, but remain largely low amid a resilient labor market. Meanwhile, investors are looking toward personal consumption expenditures data on Friday for a gauge on inflationary pressures in the economy.

☆ Fear gauge shows Wall Street's worries about a banking crisis have largely subsided
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-30 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

S & P 500 futures have been up pre-open every day this week and are again up Thursday, but that's not what really sticks out. The most notable facts about the trading action this week is how quiet it has been compared to the prior two weeks. .VIX YTD mountain Wall Street's fear gauge this year Activity in the S & P Bank ETF (KBE) , where normal average volume was one to two million shares a day prior to the banking crisis, saw multiple days with volume over 11 million shares two weeks ago. On Wednesday, a mere 2.7 million shares changed hands, almost back to pre-banking crisis levels. Indeed: the S & P is currently trading for roughly 18 times 2023 earnings estimates.

Even though reading anything with certainty from such volatile prices is difficult right now, the runes of the bond market suggest unfolding banking stress will suppress inflation anyway - regardless of further central bank action. "That would be very much in line with what the central banks want." U.S. equivalents were steadier about 2.5%, but five-year "breakeven" inflation rates from the index-linked market fell to 2.3%. To be fair to central bank policymakers, their own early warning systems - such as the ECB's Composite Indicator of Systemic Stress - don't yet show any more pressure on the system than they did during last year's tightening. Armed with Thursday's trial run from the ECB, the Fed and BoE will now have to make that judgment next week.

☆ Wolfe Research says these unloved stocks are starting to show favorable signs heading into 2023
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-17 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

A few stocks that were unloved this year look set to turn the page heading into 2023, according to Wolfe Research. Wolfe Research searched for unloved names with buy ratings from less than 40% of analysts covering them. According to Wolfe Research, Carnival is expected to accelerate earnings by 647%. Pinterest has low short interest, just 5.5%, according to Wolfe Research. Regardless, the airline company has a high 2Q22 earnings quality score of 96, and it's forecasted to accelerate earnings by 17%, according to Wolfe Research.

☆ Barclays says cash the 'real winner' for next year as stocks keep falling
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-16 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Cash should be investors' top pick in 2023, but bonds are smarter than equities for investors, Barclays said. "If forced to choose between stocks and bonds, we would be overweight core fixed income over equities," Rajadhyaksha said in a note to clients. "But cash should be the real winner of 2023, with US front-end yields likely to go to 4.5% or higher and stay there for several quarters." For equities, the S & P 500 's performance shows there is still a downside coming, with Barclays forecasting a bottom in the first half of 2023. Still, he said the comparatively lower risk of holding cash makes both less enticing.

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